Hard to say as it depends on so many isolated external factors.
For instance you get a minor intraday rally because Suharto did this, or a selloff because the Fed did what was expected
I think the market, presuming it shall go lower sooner than later (that is to say, new highs won't be attained first), has the potential to perform a stairstep decline with minor rallies coming off support levels as it goes down. Because I don't make money by guessing the DOW, I only look at the SP8M. In the SP8M I look for 05, bounce, 97/00, minor bounce, low 80s and bounce and then 65 range and bounce.
A case could be made for a challenge of the 200 dMA. So, look at the 200dMA on the DJIA for a correlation.
Of course, my posture is usually generally bearish so one has to take this view with a grain of Viagra. |
