ADSL May Be Top Data Access Choice
(04/09/98; 7:07 p.m. EST)
By Mary Mosquera, TechWeb
techweb.com
How consumers choose to receive data in their homes
will ultimately depend on price. Digital subscriber line
(DSL) is the front-runner in that regard, a research
analyst said Thursday.
By 2001, there will be several million DSL
subscribers, said Vern Mackall, who follows data
communications technology for International Data
Corp. in Framingham, Mass. Mackall made his
forecast at an IDC conference, "Telecom Transitions
'98: How to Make Dollars and Sense in the
Telecommunications Markets."
Mackall's statements directly contradict a top Intel
executive and analysts' predictions, made Wednesday
at a New York conference on TV-PC convergence,
that cable modems will be the most popular
high-speed data access technology within a few years.
DSL increases data speed over ordinary telephone
lines. Asymmetric DSL (ADSL), a version of DSL, is
even faster and suits the Internet user, Mackall said,
but the price will have to come down to $55 to $65 a
month to stoke consumer and small-business demand.
"Expect a gradual migration to ADSL," he added.
Until ADSL service hits the market, analog modems,
with speeds up to 56 kilobits per second (Kbps), are
the only game in town. One way to boost the speed of
analog modems is to bond existing multiple lines into a
bigger pipe; Microsoft is building the ability to do that
into its Windows 98 operating system, due out in June.
ISDN, which delivers voice, video, and data between
64Kbps and 128Kbps, is readily available throughout
the U.S., with about 1 million lines in use. Service
rates range from $30 to $70 per month, and a terminal
adapter runs about $250.
Mackall said ISDN is available for about 85 percent
of phone lines in the U.S., depending on the local
carrier. For example, ISDN is available in Tennessee
but not in New Mexico.
DSL, which delivers data at 128Kbps, allows the user
to talk on the phone while leaving the data line free. A
universal ADSL group, comprised of Microsoft, Intel,
Compaq, and the Baby Bells, formed earlier this year
to promote the technology. Customers will be able to
buy the equipment themselves from a retailer, and
monthly service costs, which run as high as $200 in
tests, must fall under $65 per month for the technology
to achieve mass-market appeal.
The quality and price of a DSL connection, however,
depends on the distance between the modem at the
carrier switch and the modem at the customer site. An
area of concern is the local loop -- the last mile to the
customer -- because "it wasn't designed to do all this,"
Mackall said.
Mackall expects the main alternative to DSL, the
cable modem, to catch on as well, but not as quickly.
He predicted there will be 2.2 million cable modems in
use by 2002, but cable modem development will
continue to be hindered by the industry's inability to
reach agreement on technology standards.
Cable modems will be suitable for secondary phone
lines, "if cable companies can show people there is
reliability," he said.
To improve reliability, cable companies have been
upgrading their infrastructure with fiber, but so far,
they've reached only about 25 percent of all homes in
the U.S.
They'll need another $15 billion to $20 billion more to
complete the project, and that could keep the cost to
users high. High-speed cable modem access will have
to fall below $40 per month for widespread adoption,
Mackall said. |
