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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: Brian Sullivan who wrote (43956)5/12/2004 4:50:53 PM
From: Nadine Carroll   of 793846
 
Actual Gallup writeup of the same results cited by Mellman as a strong Kerry lead:

Trial-Heat Ballot

The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted May 7-9, shows that Bush and Kerry would be in a neck-and-neck race if the presidential election were held today.

From a broad perspective, this represents little significant change over the last several months. From late March to the current survey, Kerry's percentage of support from likely voters has been within a narrow range between 45% and 49%. Bush's support has ranged only between 48% and 51% of likely voters during the same time.

The lack of change in the intentions of likely voters is perhaps surprising given that Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped to its lowest level of his administration -- 46%. It appears that while the president's positioning in the eyes of voters has become more vulnerable -- as indicated by this job approval rating and the drop in support for U.S. involvement in Iraq -- Kerry has yet to take full advantage of it.

The current parity in the presidential race is partly a result of the fact that Bush is doing better, relatively speaking, among likely voters -- individuals Gallup says would be most likely to actually vote if the election were held today.

Bush does not fare as well among the larger group of all adult Americans who are registered to vote. Kerry has a slight 50% to 44% lead over Bush among this group. Kerry's percentage of the vote among registered voters increased from 47% to 50% between the May 2-4 poll and the May 7-9 poll, while Bush's decreased from 47% to 44%.
gallup.com
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