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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club
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To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (4399)4/11/1999 8:44:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff   of 15132
 
** SSB on ETEC and AMAT **

The Past Week in Review...

Etec Systems preannounced a shortfall in 3Q99 with revenues of $55-60M
vs. our estimate of $71M. The company expects earnings per share of
$0.10 vs. our previous estimate of $0.26 and consensus of $0.28.
Although Etec's revenues are flattening out due to a lower than expected
unit demand, we believe that the 0.18 micron semiconductor production
ramp should begin in the Jan-July 2000 time frame, implying an up-tick in
Etec's orders in the June-99 to Dec-99 time period, which is well within
the current discounting horizon. We expect Etec's order activity to
accelerate as it has a monopoly in supplying high-end pattern generation
equipment. We revised our FY99 sales estimate to $246M from $289M and
EPS to $0.71 from $1.18. For FY00, we are modeling revenues of $295M vs.
$387M and EPS of $1.24 vs. $2.34. We also adjusted our price target from
$69 to $62, or 4x our calendar 2000 sales-per-share estimate of $15.6.
Applied Materials hosted an upbeat analyst meeting this past week in
Santa Clara, highlighting market share gains and solid gross margin
expectations. We expect 2Q99 to be on track with bookings of $1.2-$1.3
billion and believe there is a tremendous gross margin story waiting to
unfold, with continued market share gains and cost reductions during the
current upcycle. We reiterate our 1H (Buy, High Risk) rating and price
target of $76.
SSB Japan Analyst, Hiroshi Yoshihara, increased his price target on Tokyo
Electron from 6,000 yen to 7,000 yen, or 36x FY01 EPS estimate of 196
yen. Orders are expected to recover steadily quarter by quarter, and the
market will begin factoring in projected EPS through FY01 as the new
fiscal year gets under way.
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