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Strategies & Market Trends : Joe Stocks Trader Talk

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To: Joe Stocks who wrote (422)	3/6/2002 12:02:18 PM
From: D. K. G.	Read Replies (2) of 787

Kohl's Kohl's (KSS:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) is an example of a stock price that's far ahead of reality. I wrote a bearish column on Kohl's 13 months ago, when the stock was trading around $68; it closed Friday at $68.50. Since that column appeared, Kohl's business has been growing at a fast rate, while its stock price hasn't made any progress. I think a stagnant stock is the best that Kohl's shareholders can hope for in the next few years. According to my analysis, it will take another three to four years of heady growth for this retailer's business to catch up to its current stock price. Like all retailers that are in a high-growth phase, Kohl's will eventually run out of steam. To the extent that Kohl's stumbles, the fall will be fast and furious. Even if the stock had a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 for the fiscal year ending January 2003 -- too rich for me -- it would yield a price of $43, substantially below the current level. thestreet.com

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