QCOM Q1FY2005- Pre-Earnings Review-
......................................................Orig Guide.........Rev 1........Consensus- 1st Call
........................................................Nov 3...............Dec 21.........1/13/05
Metrics
..CDMA Handset sales
.....4QFY04(sept)- to be reported............41.0.................40.0
.....1QFY05(dec)- guidance update ........50.0
.....CY05 estimate- guidance update?....223.0
........WCDMA.........................................55.0
.........CDMA2000..................................168.0
..CDMA Handset ASPs
.....4QFY04(sept)- to be reported..........$213................$212
.....1QFY05(dec)- guidance update
.....CY05 estimate- guidance update?...$215
..MSM Sales
.....1QFY05(dec)- to be reported...........38.5..................39.0
.....2QFY05(mar)- guidance update
EPS (Core w/o QSI)
.....1QFY05(dec)- to be reported.........$025..................$0.265..........$0.27
.....2QFY05(mar)- guidance update....................................................$0.30
....FY05 estimate- guidance update? .$1.17......................................$1.18
News Items providing potential hints for the quarter appear positive -
Positives-
1. TMSC cuts prices-
: “TSMC, UMC lowering foundry prices” and “the firm may have already cut prices 20-30% this quarter for certain major customers... ”
digitimes.com
To: slacker711 who wrote (43911)
12/24/2004 10:08:44 AM
From: slacker711
of 43923
Sources: TSMC, UMC lowering foundry prices
digitimes.com
Hans Wu, Hsinchu; Jack Lu, DigiTimes.com [Friday 24 December 2004]
Rather than just offering discounts for production at 0.35- and 0.18-micron nodes, as reported on November 11, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is offering price cuts of up to 10% across all process technologies for customers that plan to increase orders, according to sources.
The firm may have already cut prices 20-30% this quarter for certain major customers, the sources speculated. In addition, United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is cutting prices by up to 5%, the sources said. As a result, TSMC and UMC may see their fourth-quarter average selling prices (ASPs) fall below expectations.
Both TSMC and UMC declined to comment on the news.
China’s Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) and Singapore’s Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing have already issued guidance updates warning of lower ASPs for the fourth quarter.
2. WCDMA Sales
2.A. – UK and other 3G Sales appear to be doing well.
To: Cooters who wrote (136405)
1/13/2005 10:19:05 AM
From: slacker711
Read Replies (1) of 136412
A couple of comments about 3G from Carphone's CC....
- In the UK, 3G (VOD + Hutchison) made up 20% of overall business (not sure if it was units or revenue). It was actually a bit higher in October and November than December....probably due to a shift towards pre-pay for Christmas.
- Anecdotally, VOD seems to be doing well with 3G in Spain and Portugal and Orange is doing well in France.
- Their comments about 3G accelerating in the second half seemed to be based on the fact that other carriers will be launching.
Slacker
2.B. UK Carphone Warehouse “strong” Christmas period
To: Cooters who wrote (136404)
1/13/2005 8:34:46 AM
From: Cooters
Read Replies (2) of 136412
Carphone Warehouse Q3 revs up, sees migration to 3G
By Kabir Chibber
2:16am 01/13/05
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Carphone Warehouse (UK:CPW) said it expects to achieve a full year result ahead of current market expectations after a "strong" Christmas period. It said retail revenues grew 24.9 percent, or 11.2 percent on a same-store basis. Its TalkTalk fixed line service grew 58 percent to 99.7 million pounds. It expects the migration of customers to 3G to gain "significant momentum" in the second half of 2005, it said, and expects further good progress in connections in the fiscal fourth quarter.
2.C. UK Carphone Warehouse 3G models apparently sold out
From: Cooters
1/12/2005 6:05:39 PM
Read Replies (1) of 136412
Carphone Warehouse in the UK reports earnings tonight, they have quite a few popular 3G models from "3" and VOD out of stock. Hope we get a bullish outlook. RSH reports tomorrow morning too.
VOD's Sony/Ericy V800 out of stock:
carphonewarehouse.com.
Most of 3's handsets are out of stock
carphonewarehouse.com.
carphonewarehouse.com.
carphonewarehouse.com.
2.D. Japan 3G Dec sub additions were strong at over 1 million added.
To: slacker711 who wrote (44138)
1/11/2005 9:42:01 AM
From: slacker711
Read Replies (2) of 44166
It looks like FOMA subscriber additions might finally be breaking out of the 500,000 a month range....Docomo added 930,000 W-CDMA subs during December. VOD also added 70,000 W-CDMA subs.
Overall, Docomo added 247,500 subs....KDDI added 241,000 subs and VOD added 900 subs <g>.
tca.or.jp
This basically makes it a clean sweap....W-CDMA outperformed expectations in just about every region in December.
Slacker
3. U.S.
3.A. Radio Shack reports strong Dec Qtr Wireless sales- “"Wireless sales at Radioshack rose 13 percent in the quarter"
.
To: Cooters who wrote (136405)
1/13/2005 8:55:52 AM
From: Cooters
Read Replies (1) of 136412
"Wireless sales at Radioshack rose 13 percent in the quarter"
reuters.com
RadioShack Sales Up; Pres. Promoted
Thu Jan 13, 2005 07:30 AM ET
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - RadioShack Corp. (RSH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the No. 3 U.S. consumer electronics chain, on Thursday said fourth-quarter sales at stores open at least a year rose 3 percent, and said its president, David Edmondson, would become chief executive.
RadioShack, based in Fort Worth, Texas, said Edmondson, who is also chief operating officer, would succeed Leonard Roberts as CEO, effective at the annual shareholders meeting on May 19. Roberts will remain chairman, it said.
The retailer, the nation's top seller of mobile phones and accessories, said total sales in the quarter rose 7 percent to $1.59 billion. According to Reuters Estimates, analysts had forecast $1.56 billion.
The company affirmed its fiscal year 2004 earnings per share guidance of $2.07 to $2.09 and affirmed its outlook for fiscal year 2005 earnings per share growth of 19 percent to 21 percent above 2004's level.
Wireless sales at Radioshack rose 13 percent in the quarter, looking at total unaudited sales by department, while sales in the computer department rose 27 percent due to higher sales of digital imaging, networking and surveillance products, RadioShack said.
The company noted that sales excluding the wireless department rose 3 percent and said this was "a significant sequential improvement from the declines of the first three quarters of 2004 and a positive result of the company's continued efforts to transition its product assortment."
3.B. Radio Shack from CES – expects a strong 2005 for mobile wireless
From: Cooters
1/7/2005 3:12:05 PM
of 44166
RadioShack CEO sees strong mobile phone sales
yahoo.reuters.com.
Tech Show-RadioShack CEO sees strong mobile phone sales
Fri Jan 7, 2005 03:09 PM ET
By Franklin Paul
LAS VEGAS, Jan 7 (Reuters) - RadioShack Corp. (RSH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) expects 2005 to be another strong year for sales of mobile phones, as features like built in cameras and personal information managers drive purchases, Chief Executive Leonard Roberts said.
Retailers Best Buy and Circuit City have both reported weak December sales for electronics, driving fears consumer spending is slowing, and investors have seen similar problems for RadioShack, which is the No. 3 retailer.
He declined in a late Thursday interview to comment on general sales trends for the holidays but said RadioShack had not seen problems in phone sales.
"Our wireless business has not been weak. We have outstripped the industry growth rate for three years in a row. When the industry was seeing flattish growth we were posting 18-19 percent growth rate and I suspect that pattern will continue for a long time," he said at the Consumer Electronics Show.
CES is the largest U.S. technology showcase where companies from around the globe roll out new gadgets.
In 2005, Roberts also sees strength in phones and other devices that use the short-range wireless technology known as Bluetooth, as well as other small and portable electronics like digital music players.
That bodes well for RadioShack, whose compact stores are not suited for large displays of the immensely popular big-screen and plasma TVs.
Moreover, Roberts said that while some big-ticket items will continue to be featured in RadioShack stores, average purchase are only about $32.
"We don't want to introduce new technology unless its at a practical pragmatic price point. Under $100 is great for us," he said.
He said RadioShack also aimed to invest in emerging technologies such as global positioning and medical monitoring devices, which would also drive growth.
"Best Buy, Circuit City, they have to wait until there is a certain maturity in adoption because they have to move volume in order to support their financial model," he said of rival electronics retailers, whose stores are typically much larger in size. "RadioShack has a great track record for making markets for new technology."
Roberts declined to quantify how much additional spending the Fort Worth, Texas-based company will put into these investments, or how much revenue and profit it would reap as a result. But he said that in three years, the numbers of patents or new companies that RadioShack will invest in will number in the "hundreds."
"We are trying to lock up patents," he said. "We lock up patents and intellectual property, so when (the gadget) hits the commodity stage, we have a piece of the action. Every time Wal-Mart sells one, that's fine - we are happy."
Roberts said the company hopes to develop and market devices based on Global Positioning Satellite, or GPS, technology, as well as niche products like a gadget that can make sure an analog TV can receive a digital signal.
3.D.. BEST BUY said it expects to sell more than 600 wireless phones per minute durng the holidays
From: Cooters
11/12/2004 8:03:30 AM
Read Replies (2) of 136413
7:14am 11/12/04 BEST BUY: Big holiday interest in consumer electronics By Mike Maynard
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- A survey commissioned by BEST BUY (BBY) shows that 67 percent of respondents are planning to give consumer electronics as gifts during the upcoming holiday season. Another revealing finding was that more than 60 percent of female respondents would like to get gifts enabling them to create, manipulate and share digital images. Also of note, BEST BUY said it expects to sell more than 600 wireless phones per minute durng the holidays. BEST BUY's shares added 9 cents to end at $59.79 on Thursday
3:36am 11/12/04 Nokia upped to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley By Emily Church
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Morgan Stanley overnight raised its rating on mobile handset and mobile network systems maker Nokia (NOK) to equal-weight and lifted its price target on the stock to 8.5 euros. The broker cited "management's recognition of its problems, the product portfolio and R&D." The broker raised its earnings per share forecast by 6 percent in 2007 "thanks to lower R&D" spending
4. India CDMA-
4.1.
Slacker on TMF-
Recommendations: 1
indiainfoline.com
CDMA mobile segment
CDMA subscriber base grew 5.5% mom to 10.2mn with Reliance contributing to a chunk of
additions in subscriber base. Reliance witnessed 4.4% mom growth and maintained its 90%
market share with a total subscriber base of 9.1mn. Tata Teleservices subscriber base continued
its upward trend and witnessed a robust growth of 17.9% mom.
5. China--------
6. S. Korea----
7. General xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
7.1 Goldman ups U.S. Telecom Sector
From: Cooters
1/12/2005 6:40:21 AM
Read Replies (1) of 136412
Goldman ups US telecom equip makers to 'attractive'
By Emily Church
6:09am 01/12/05
LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Goldman Sachs overnight upped its rating on communications equipment makers to "attractive" from "neutral," telling clients it expects momentum in consumer devices and corporate networking to contribute to spending by the sector's major customers. The broker said it sees "attractive entry points and 15 percent to 30 percent upside" for some of the stocks, listing Sonus Networks (SONS) , Motorola (MOT) , and Netgear (NTGR) in particular. Goldman said it remained "outperform" on Cisco Systems s (SCSO) , Research in Motion (RIMM) and Juniper Networks [sL jnpr]."
--
Goldman still doesn't cover QCOM, but the sector call should help today.
7.2. Lehman- Dec Q Handset sales healthy and March should see less seasonal pressure
From: Cooters
1/7/2005 11:59:38 AM
Read Replies (1) of 136412
Lehman is out today with comments on global handset volumes for the Dec and Mar quarters. Can't find a link yet. Says Dec Q handset sales are healthy and the Mar Q should see less seasonal pressure than usual, owing to greater contributions from Asia and contributions from WCDMA.
Negatives-
1. U.S. Wireless Sales-
1.1. Circuit City and Best Buy report decreases in wireless sales.
To: slacker711 who wrote (44064)
1/7/2005 12:16:08 AM
From: slacker711
Read Replies (4) of 44166
Has the camera phone upgrade cycle to wane or was this is just a result of some market share shifts? Radio Shack will report on January 13th....if they were down as well, it would be hard to see CDMA handset sales as having had a good quarter in the US.
Circuit City
biz.yahoo.com
* A decrease in wireless sales, principally driven by a business model
change, contributed 90 basis points to the overall comparable store
sales decline.
Best Buy
biz.yahoo.com
As expected, offsetting these gains were comparable store sales declines in analog TVs, video gaming, home audio products, CDs, desktop computers and cellular phones.
Slacker
Overall, the reports appear positive.
Additions/ corrections appreciated- |
