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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: reno4 who wrote (44173)	9/1/2011 1:56:18 AM
From: Spekulatius	of 78717

I am targeting around ~20-25% cash at the prevailing conditions. I have gone as high as 50% in march 2011 and as low at 10% in the May 2010 to Sept 2010 timeframe. I feel that shareprices are a lot determined by macro and sentiment so I adjust my cash level to take advantage of market swings. I feel that there is a pretty much a binary situation - If Europe goes to crap - we are going to breach the 1000 level with the SP500 - if things stay calm for a while, we should at least go to ~1350 (the former top), muddling along will probably keep us where we are with a shallow upward bias. My sense so is that the question is not if but when a default occurs in Europe and I do not know how contained that situation will be and what the outcome will look like. We also have some macro risk coming from China (overheating followed by a RE bust) that needs to be watched carefully. The Chinese government want to facilitate a soft landing but this may not work out as intended.

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