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Strategies & Market Trends : The Thread Formerly Known as No Rest For The Wicked

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To: nomedelurk who wrote (44334)5/22/1999 8:04:00 PM
From: kendall harmon   of 90042
 
ACAI is an excellent bounce candidate for Monday.

A Yahoo poster said "the selling might not be justified, however a dead cat bounce usually ends the day with an uptrend..." but the key phrase is "usually."

People such as myself and others who watch these kinds of sell offs like hawks know how to distinguish an opportunity from a masquerading briar patch.

(1) You look for a good basic company. ACAI qualifies. As has already been pointed out, this company is featured in the latest business week as a top 100 fast grower. The analyst from bt alex brown likes the stock longer term. They have a deal with United that lasts until 2009 which is very positive.

(2) You look for value. It is certainly here in spades, in terms of both P/e and price/sales.

(3) You look for whether there is a disproportion between the news and the reaction. The news Friday was guidance from the company that earnings will be some 14-15% lower, but the stock was down 30%, and that was just Friday.

(4) You look for a volume spike--this is as important and at times more important than price. TRL is a recent example--it ended with nearly no bounce but on huge volume the day it sold off.

(5) You look for a good short ratio--and ACAI has one of over 4.

I look for a bounce to between 16 1/2 and 17 in the first half an hour on Monday. The burden is on those who argue otherwise.

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