Thanks for sharing the results. Some were good, some weren't so hot, but I think you beat most of the fund managers :)
Although I do not agree that your scenerio is the most likely, I cannot argue that it is not possible. First, I agree with the initial part; there will be a run up between now and the beginning of 'warning season' (which always seems to come earlier, each quarter). Second, I agree that the recovery is being hyped a lot, and at best will be a slow step recovery.
Given that, I am toying with the idea of riding the wave up, then pulling out as much as possible mid- to end-Sept, with the idea of coming back at the start of Nov. The risk is missing a better-than-anticipated 3rd quarter season; jumping out at, say, 2400, and having to climb back in at, say, 2700. However, with the hype up of the 'bottom', I think that expectations for Q3 are already way too high; can you imagine what they will be if the NAZ runs up 300-400? Might be that a end-of-Sept NAZ 2400/start of Nov NAZ 1900 scenerio is just too risky...
Thanks for planting the seed to mull over. I think the risk/reward is just too big to ride out the next earnings season. |
