Trader J's Inner Circle Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Trader J's Inner Circle

NVDA 175.02

-3.3%

Dec 12 9:30 AM EST

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To: LTK007 who wrote (44429)	6/22/2001 1:05:59 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) of 56535

nice commemtary on semi-equips by briefing.com >>Semi Equipment : The closely watched book-to-bill data for the semi equipment group was reported after the close last night. The ratio improved slightly in May to 0.46 from 0.44 in April.. Despite recent weakness, the chip equipment group has posted nice gains since early April on hopes that we are near a bottom on the book-to-bill data. Well, it looks like a meaningful turnaround is still nowhere in sight. Most everyone believes that April's 0.44 was the bottom, but May is clearly disappointing as analysts had been looking for a rebound to the 0.48-0.55 range. Front-end (AMAT, KLAC, LRCX, NVLS.) orders declined 1% sequentially for the the seventh consecutive month while front-end book-to-bill increased to 0.47 from 0.43. Back-end (TER, KLIC) orders declined 10% sequentially for the 12th consecutive month. The back-end book-to-bill was 0.43 versus 0.41 in April...Surprisingly, the group is trading higher today despite the weaker data. Briefing.com continues to believe that we are in the vicinity of the bottom of the cycle. However, the stocks still are relatively expensive and had that nice run since early April. On the positive side, the stocks have been resilient despite some pretty bearish conference calls by the major players. There is somewhat of a divergence as Applied Materials (AMAT) was more positive than NVLS. Mgmt at AMAT expects book-to-bill will be 1 or slightly above in JulQ and the company said that book-to-bill may have bottomed. There is clearly a lack of consensus which makes us nervous. NVLS made a point in its call to rebut AMAT's view of the market. We recommend waiting for a more significant move off the April low before becoming aggressive on the group. -- Robert J. Reid, Briefing.com >> end -quote

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