Nothing lasts Forever, but here are few of my thoughts market observations :
1) Grove and his "management by Paranoia" has a very good chance of dominating for next 3-5 years. Here are a few reasons I think why !
a). Intel knows that one of these days, people might say 786s(current x86) are good enough, we donot need any more power any nore CPUs from you - their answer -
Heavy push into the server market - 4 way PPros - motherboard designed by Intel - Dell, CPQ even no name mom and pop shops are marketing these now, this cuts into low end Suns, IBMs, etc, etc.
For desktops ( home or office) Intel themselves is creating compelling applications for the MMX - example video conferencing, here is an example where they were not even dependent on their ally Microsoft or any one else.
2) Gobbling up Server market share also applies to MS, with NT 4.0 and for desktops IE 3.0, Activex, they are pushing the envelope very high and very fast. Remember exactly 1 year ago MS did not have a decent Explorer / Navigator, and their push was with MSnetwork, a Compuserve alternative. In one year MS realigns their strategy with the INTERNET, and surpasses NETSCAPE by some reports, thats amazes me. Corporate buying cycle is becoming stronger and everbody is not converted to Win95. The full transition to Win95 NT will happen in next 1-2 quarters, and after that same revenue genrating algorithms ...... OFFICE 97, next rev of NT/95, etc, etc, etc,
Threat ( how serious ?) is NC, we might start seeing some of these in 4Q96, 1Q97, these might become airport Keiosks but are they going to replace Wintel machines in next 1-2 years? of course Mr. Ellison and Mr. McNealy are dreaming that daily, but I do not think so , Look corp. America is taking 1 full year to transition from 3.1 to 95, are they going to drop all those pcs and put an NC on every ones desk ?
Like to know your thoughts on PC v/s NC |
