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Strategies & Market Trends : ahhaha's ahs

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To: Ilaine who wrote (444)11/3/2000 2:10:17 PM
From: Wayners of 24758
 
I can't predict which way the market will go. I have to go with current direction and react quickly to when the trend changes. Predictions are only needed to get exact tops and bottoms. You don't need to catch tops and bottoms to make money. All you need is enough liquidity to be able to buy or sell right when the trend changes. Unless you have an account the size of a mutual fund its easy to get in or out right when the trend changes. Its the mutual funds and other institutions that can't trade and make money. They can't. The market can and will continue to be exploited by smaller positional traders. People that say if the pros can't trade and make money then you can't either aren't taking the liquidity needed into consideration. The amount of liquidity and size of the positions that individuals or institutions need to acquire are what cause the streaks and trends to occur plus some good old fear and greed. Also don't need the market to go up to make money. All I need to know is the trend. You short a downtrend and go long on an uptrend and try to react as quickly as possible to trend changes. Thats what its all about. Once you've satisfied that you can get in and out on trend changes because there is enough liquidity per unit time to do so, you next need to be satisfied that the particular stock you are trading has a defined history of streaks. The streaks are not equivalent to a coin toss streak where you know the streaks are solely a function of the number of sides of a coin. With a stock the streak lengths are a function of the float of the stock which can be very very different the two sided coin. For example lets say the float of stock ABC is only 1 million shares (a very low float) and I need to buy only 100,000 shares today and I can only get 10,000 shares to buy per hour because thats the extent of the liquidity of whats for sale. Its going to cause a streak of 10 hours wheras a stock with a 1 million float where I can get 100,000 shares per hour is only going to get me a streak of about 10 minutes.
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