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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems
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To: Bill Fischofer who wrote (44519)8/18/2001 12:34:46 PM
From: QwikSand  Read Replies (1) of 64865
 
There are two basic approaches one can take here. The first is the "end of the world" scenario where the expectation is that the world is on the verge of Great Depression II and equities are finished for this generation. To those who hold this view there can be little argument since a firm decision has already been made...

No, there's a third approach, which is the one that I think those two guys in the audio clip were espousing (and that I take myself): predictions don't mean much. Everybody makes them but nobody knows. My broker sent me a real fancy chart showing with scientific precision that in the past, whenever the Fed has cut rates 4 times the next 18 months have been super-duper.

I didn't hear those two TA bears say Great Depression II. I heard them say we're in a downtrend until there's some indication that we're not. So far there has been no such indication that I can see, just an accelerating flood of ominous portents accompanied by more and more bottom projections (always moving a little farther out).

Will the *real* bottom indication come in September 2001 (i.e., tomorrow)? Well, that would be nice, I for one doubt it, but it doesn't matter. I'll believe things have turned around when there's some evidence they've turned around. My personal opinion is that the January effect next year is going to be a humdinger when earnings for Q4CY01 show that consumer holiday spending was a disaster. But that opinion is worth what you paid for it.

--QS
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