Can Apple Stay on Top?
Now that the iPod has taken over the free world, Apple's biggest enemy might not be its competitors, but itself.
by Joel Johnson
May 2005 Issue of LAPTOP Magazine
10 Signs Apple Will Continue to Thrive
1. Apple commands a highly-tuned hype machine.
Fans spend the weeks between product releases speculating on what Apple's next move might be. Trade journalists, normally inured to the predictable ballyhoo of product releases, join with the fans to postulate on the possible repercussions of something as trivial as a mid-life product line upgrade. Even people that hate Apple love to see what it will release next, if only to tear it apart.
2. Have you seen their stores?
Apple's expanding retail presence is not only pushing Macs and iPods into the hands of curious consumers who might not otherwise give them a whirl, they're also turning a profit. Apple is turning the idea of a company-owned store on its head, using the spaces as not only retail outlets, but places where afficinados can get together to fraternize and learn.
3. Nobody does design better.
There probably hasn't been an icon factory like the Jonathan Ives-led concept department since Harley "Tailfin" Earl's 30 years at General Motors. Coupled with a company-wide commitment to holistic design, from the feel of the buttons to the Apple Interface Guidelines that dictate a unified application experience, Apple products are some of the most well thought-out available, in consumer electronics or otherwise.
4. The iTunes Music Store is a runaway success.
Even though Yahoo will soon be breathing down its neck, no other online music store does more brisk business than Apple's. The company recently surpassed 300 million downloads, and in the first two months of this year alone the company sold 85 million songs. The store's automatic synchronization with iPods makes life very easy on users, plus iTunes gets the most exclusive downloads because of its market-leading position.
5. iPod + Cell Phone = Goldmine
What happens when you combine the two most popular portable gadgets on earth? We should soon find out as Motorola and Apple plan to release the first mobile phone with the iTunes player built in. It will be like having an iPod shuffle crammed into your cell. On the other hand, the iTunes phone has faced a number of launch delays. Rumors are rampant that the service providers are hesitant to carry a phone that would presumably circumvent their networks when it comes to getting music onto the device.
6. You don't just buy an iPod, you buy into a whole retail culture.
While most music players are lucky to have a couple of cases and accessories, literally thousands of options are available for tricking out your iPod or using it as the centerpiece of an audio system. BMWs, boom boxes, or handbags: the iPod is an economy unto itself.
7. Overpriced gear is (almost) a thing of the past.
With new products like the Mac mini ($499) and the iPod shuffle (starting at $99), Apple is leading the entire computer industry in commoditizing computers and peripherals as just another part of the consumer electronics spectrum. Everyone can own a Mac or an iPod now, with low-end options for those with light pocketbooks.
8. OS X Rules.
Sure, Linux has improved, but when it comes to offering an easy-to-use desktop alternative to Windows that offers all the power of great open source applications (Apache, Samba) in addition to retail apps (Office, Photoshop), nothing comes close to Apple's OS X. The quick turnaround of operating system point releases means new features show up every few months, not every few years. Mac market share has increased over the last couple of years, likely due to a more stable operating system luring users fed up with Windows, but also the 'halo effect' from happy iPod users.
9. iLife is the best media suite for home users, bar none.
While many Windows media applications do a good job, nothing integrates as smoothly and provides as seamless an experience as iLife. As users increasingly search for computing experiences that "just work," the bundled suite of iLife and iWork applications may continue to lure new Mac users to the fold.
10. Those Apple/TiVo rumors.
Rumors abound that Apple may purchase TiVo, a union many see as a natural fit for both companies. TiVo has a strong brand and a boatload of patents related to recording television, and Apple has the most successful online media download platform yet in iTunes Music Store. An iTune Movie Store could be a watershed development for legal video distribution, which will likely happen with or without TiVo's help.
10 Signs Apple Could Tumble
1. Apple is suing its biggest fans.
Apple's hype machine relies on secrecy, something so precious that they'll sue their biggest fans to maintain it. Apple's lawsuit early this year against a trio of fan sites and their authors (Powerpage.org, ThinkSecret.com, and AppleInsider.com) over leaked internal information shows the chink in their translucent white armor. Rather than plug internal holes and chalking up the leaks as a learning experience, Apple attempted to subpoena personal e-mail records from the fan site authors' ISPs.
2. Pretty sometimes trumps practicality.
The same design that let Apple charge a premium over the years also cultivated a perception by many that Macintoshes are computers for people who don't know how to use a computer. While Macintoshes are easy to use, Apple's stubborn commitment to idealistic but misguided decisions like the one-button mouse discourage many from even considering the platform.
3. More options, less stuff in the box.
The two most recent iPod additions, the iPod shuffle and the second-generation iPod photo, both come in cheaper packaging and with less bundled peripherals. The "everything you need is in this box" philosophy is fading, as Apple cuts corners to keep the iPod dominant in the portable music market.
4. OS X is still the smallest major computing platform.
Yes, it's behind Linux, and even Windows 98.
5. There's MP3-phone competition.
Having lost the dedicated MP3 player war, many companies are taking the fight to cell phones. Sony Ericsson has announced the first Walkman phone, and Samsung is releasing a phone in Korea with a built-in hard drive. Other companies are sure to follow. In two years, it will be tough to find a mobile phone that doesn't play music.
6. iPod is everywhere, lurking, hiding, creeping.
Every other person in the New York subways has two white tendrils crawling from their pockets to their head. Can a product that was once a luxury item make the transition to commodity product without losing the cachet that made it 'must have' in the first place? We sense a bit of a backlash brewing.
7. Where are the games?
While most major applications maintain a version for OS X despite the vastly smaller customer base, games releases on the Macintosh platform are still few and far between. The major massively multiplayer game World of Warcraft was released simultaneously for both Windows and OS X. Apple needs to subsidize simultaneous releases for major titles. It won't win over hardcore gaming types, but it will go a long way in making the Mac appear as a viable option for all aspects of entertainment.
8. Apple can't wait much longer to move on video.
While the market for mobile movie watching has been lukewarm at best, there's reason to believe a simple content download service would be something consumers would pay for. Napster is rumored to be working on plans to offer a movie and television download service. Being a first mover can be important in new markets, although to be fair, Apple is the quintescential example of a company capitalizing on the advantages of moving second.
9. We want our PowerBook G5.
For a few short weeks in the summer of 2003, Apple's Power Macintosh G5 was arguably the most powerful desktop machine ever produced (AMD's Athlon 64 processors were introduced soon after). Now two years after the launch of the chip that put Apple back on the 'power map,' there is still no laptop powered by the chip. The iMac got a single G5 upgrade last year, but it appears that the great heat output of the chip is causing problems for the designers, who try to ship Apple laptops that are able to run with only passive, silent cooling.
10. Nobody likes a snob.
No matter how fantastic Apple's products may be, overzealous users continue to be the company's worst asset. For every rational Mac fan, happily extolling the virtues of an often overlooked computing platform, there are a dozen more, ready to rationalize every misstep the company makes and downplay the successes of other platforms. The Mac Cultists are scary-and uncool.
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