When Is Sale of 128 Million Nokia Phones Bad?
By Randall Hackley
January 9, 2001
WHEN IS GOOD NEWS bad news?
smartmoney.com
Nokia (NOK) investors might be asking that Tuesday, after shares of the Finnish mobile-phone giant fell sharply despite the news that the firm sold more than 128 million phones in 2000, a healthy 64% increase from the previous year.
Nokia said the pace of its unit sales growth exceeded that of the overall market. Still, Nokia shares fell sharply in Helsinki on the news, down 14%, as well as on the New York Stock Exchange, where American depositary shares of Nokia slid 8.8%, or $3.81, to $39.31.
Market participants were disappointed with Nokia's inability to hit at least 130 million units in 2000 sales. Investors were already nervous about earnings figures for U.S.-based Motorola (MOT), Nokia's closest rival, which are due after the closing bell Wednesday.
NYSE-listed shares of Motorola fell 4.8% to $20.69 Tuesday.
Nokia didn't disclose sales in value terms for 2000. Using the figures the company provided, Nokia's share of the mobile-phone market in 2000 was around 32%, in line with analysts' expectations.
Nokia issued preliminary estimates measuring the global mobile-phone market at 405 million units last year, a 45% increase over the preceding year, but still at the low end of the range of expectations.
In October, Nokia calmed investors' fears that the mobile-handset market had passed its peak when it reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and predicted healthy growth for the handset market through 2001.
Those results, which contrasted sharply with those of major rivals in a seasonally weak quarter, followed a campaign to cut sales margins on handsets.
Last month, Nokia officials said they believed the group's market share was in excess of 30% — almost twice the market share of Motorola.
In 1999, Motorola's share of handset sales dropped to 13.3%, from 15.6% a year earlier, while Ericsson (ERICY) saw a fall to 9.7% in the third quarter, from 10.3% in 1999, according to Dataquest.
According to Nokia's preliminary market estimates, the global mobile-phone subscriber base at the end of 2000 stood at more than 700 million users, representing a global penetration of about 12%. Nokia has long maintained that the overall number of mobile-phone users world-wide would hit one billion in 2002.
Nokia will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2000 results on Jan. 30.
Meanwhile, Ericsson said Tuesday it has no plans to issue details of mobile-phone sales or market forecasts for 2000 ahead of its full-year earnings report, due on Jan. 26. "We have not changed our estimates," said Ericsson spokesman Mikael Widell.
In October, Ericsson said it expected weak sales in Europe during 2000 and anticipated larger-than-expected losses for its ailing handset division for the year.
Ericsson shares fell in trading in Stockholm, down 6%, and on the Nasdaq, where American depositary shares of Ericsson dropped 56 cents, or 4.9%, to $10.81.
Similarly, Texas Instruments (TXN), the world's largest maker of phone computer chips, lost about 5%, closing at $44.75. Triquint Semiconductor (TQNT), which supplies telecommunications chips, lost 9% to finish the day at $35.69.
Analysts said Nokia's lower-than-expected 2000 sales were more a symptom of an industrywide issue rather than a company-specific one. They said Nokia's 2000 sales figures suggest that many markets were maturing and consumers weren't rushing yet to replace older phones with new models. |
