don, one of the biggest reasons I have held my put is because of Intel. MSFT is effectively neutralized for now, just moving sideways. Now for Intel there is the bearish outlook put out by Kurlack, who like it or not swings sentiment. Then there is the fact that Intel has had to eat a little crow and admit that they misread the strength of the trend towards low cost "segment 0" PCs. Then they doubled the trouble with the Celeron as the answer to that market, and the PC mags are frowing on the Celeron due to the lack of a level-2 cache. Price-slashing by Intel, lower GM due to the PII packaging, and what we have is a whole slew of daunting obstacles standing in the way of Intel meeting earnings estimates. So, have I been afraid of Intel earnings warning? Yes. But I believe that the market has been in the process of factoring in such a warning into INTC stock. Down 10 pts in a very short time frame, to a low that hasn't been seen in INTC for quite some time.
sorry this is so long, but anyway INTC earnings were downgraded today, and this is what is being given the blame for the late-day drop in the techs. Market was begging to be given an excuse to give back the bounce anyway, IMO. Key here is that INTC still hasn't themselves warned, that I know of. That's why I'm leery of going long the MSH, but 525 is pretty hard to resist for maybe a July call or some such.
Edit: I guess I could have saved some typing if I had seen this article first, and simply pointed you to it, saying "this is a good recap of what the sentiment is on Intel":
biz.yahoo.com |
