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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 297.52-6.6%Feb 4 3:59 PM EST
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To: Paul V. who wrote (4473)5/13/1997 9:08:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 70976
 
Paul,

Yes, $.67 for Q3 and $2.46 for 97 (without NVLS and Orbot and Opal) was the guidance and it and the current quarters bookings are above analysts targets and AMAT management's Q1 guidance.

The only question I have from listening to the replay of the conference call is how much acceleration will occur in 98. Current orders and projections for Q3 and Q4 from the DRAM makers are primarily technology orders for 64bit DRAM rather than capacity orders. AMAT management did not have a handle on what will move these customers to ramp up 64bit DRAM capacity when prices are falling toward the level of 16bit DRAM. It was mentioned that applications requiring fewer DRAM chips would push the move to 64bit DRAM, but this seemed somewhat vague.

I think the key to AMAT pricing over the next 3 months will be 98 earnings estimate revisions. The $2.46 for 97 seems solid and will support a price of 55-65 in this early recovery period. The key to moving above this level, as I stated earlier, is 98 revisions from $3.25 to $4.00. I hope members of this thread with access to upgrade and earnings forecast data keep us posted in a timely manner because I
am uncertain how the conference call will affect the analysts' current opinions of 98. I am inclined to believe they will stand pat and so will AMAT's price.

Cary
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