SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: UncleBigs who wrote (44817)11/5/2005 7:54:06 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
Finally, DougNoland also says the credit bubble has started to adapt and mutate!!! What this means is that, if housing were to slow in any meaningful way, the bubble WILL find a way to perpetuate it!! This is probably through the carry trade. Imagine the huge profits all these carry traders are making.
But what happens if carry trade grows quite large - and hence brings the cost of investment lower? Doug Noland is also suggesting this possibility. You are seeing this in refinance activity not diminishing in a menaingful way, you are seeing house price starting to appreciate in UK, New Zealand etc...
There is still lot of equity to be extracted from the housing sector. And you are still seeing service industry growing (may be most of the increase is real estate related), consumer spending growing, incomes growing...How do you explain that if housing is falling? So, in short, there are anectodes of housing falling - but we are not there. As a matter of fact, compared to last year house price are still lot higher!!! Where is the slowing on the return on investment?

I do not buy this.
Refinancing has slowed way way down although it is still up historically. We have just seen a sustained move above 4.4 or so on the TNX and refis immediately came down in response.

I think refis will collapse if we stay above 4.5.
As for housing falling, it is indeed. However it takes time for that to work its way thru just like it takes time for interest rates to work their way thru.

If you are quoting Noland accurately then I have a lot of problems with Noland this week.

Mish
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News