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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates
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To: Judith Williams who wrote (44823)7/23/2001 1:14:33 PM
From: Mike Buckley   of 54805
 
Judith,

can you have a gorilla by default?

Not if the onlt strong symptom is growth rate. Much more important than the growth rate is the power that the company wields over its value chain. You wonder about BEA's power. It's important for us to remember that all gorillas come from tornados but not all tornados spawn a gorilla. I gather that your concern is that though we might have seen a tornado in app servers, you're not certain that the winds have swept powerfully enough or long enough to spawn a gorilla.

In some cases, somewhat counter-intuitively, the lull in the tornado may actually work to enhance a gorilla's clout.

Exactly. Or it might weaken the clout. I think it depends on the amount of power the company had before the tornado was brought to an end or a pause prematurely by forces beyond the initial supply-and-demand issues that are specific to the product category. As an example, Tom Siebel said in the most recent conferencec call that CRM is a very high priority for companies. I take that to mean that though a company may not be acting on the highest priorities, once the economy turns, those priorities will indeed be acted upon. In a situation akin to BEA's situation, whether or not that means that the tornado will resume, I dunno.

--Mike Buckley
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