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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (44702)	10/5/2011 3:50:24 PM
From: E_K_S	of 78901

Hi Paul Clownbuck posted the June 30, 2011 analyst report for Noble Group Ltd. (NOBGF.PK). It's worth a read it's only 12 pages long.( thisisnoble.com ) From the report:"...High growth appetite matched by prudent management Noble has achieved tremendous growth in recent years, primarily due to the addition of new products and capital investment in production and processing facilities. Revenues and tonnage showed respective CAGRs of 37% (from USD11.7 billion in 2005 to USD56.7 billion in 2010) and 15% (from 90 million metric tons to 184 million metric tons) over the past five years. Its goal is to double its revenue in five years – from 2007 levels – and achieve a return on equity of 20%. Such a high growth rate and diversification present opportunities and challenges...." ----------------------------------------------------- They confirm pretty much what you posted earlier: ROE=17% One of the company's goals in order to achieve this growth: "...Strategic capital asset investments, focusing on storage terminals, port facilities, inland distribution operations, and processing and refinery facilities...." I think Ultrapetrol (Bahamas) Ltd. (ULTR) would be a good fit especially that they are selling at historical lows. There was a new senior convertible debt issued from last year that provides the holder to convert their preferred into common shares at $7.50/share. I think the issue was $200M and it paid 7 1/2%. It might make an interesting speculation for NOBEL to acquire as much of the ULTR preferred as possible and if those cash flows come in as expected to buy the company by exercising their conversion option. It would be a $1B+ transaction. After searching the archive, I find that the only common link is that both companies had used J.P. Morgan as their investment banker for recent financing needs. No other mention of either company regarding their shipping and/or logistics business. EKS

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