Sold my MSFT today.
Made a small profit, since I bought it at 66-67 recently.
This is basically a market call. I think MSFT is undervalued (or at least reasonably valued), but my bet is it'll get more undervalued before it rallies. MSFT cannot rally until the end of Fed tightenings, and the end of the antitrust issue, are in sight. Neither of those things is likely, in the next 3 months. I expect to buy back everything I sold today (went from 30% to 70% cash) at prices 10-20% lower. And, if I'm wrong, then I think there is a near certainty of being able to buy back at the same prices as today, sometime in the next 3 months.
For the market to rally,
in the face of the 6th Fed hike,
when the Fed has said they aren't done,
is irrational.
The other thing I've noticed, is that this year, MSFT seems to dip when the market dips, but not go up much when the market rallies. That is, the stock is showing poor relative strength. I see no reason for that pattern to be broken, anytime soon.
I'll be back. But, at the moment, cash is the sector I'm rotating into. |
