The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (44848)	11/6/2005 11:50:20 AM
From: mishedlo	of 110194

Russ, I still like the entire yield curve from 6 months to 5 years. There will not be anyone blown out in that range except possibly those leveraged heavily in futures. When I said the possibility that some bond bulls get wiped out I was referring to leverage in treasury futures. Unleveraged treasuries across the board even beyond 5 years are going to eventually prosper IMO whether or not there is a better entry point or not. Leverage in other bond investments outside of treasuries is going to be very painful for sure. Heck I think even non-leverage is going to be painful. I suspect some hedge funds are literally going to seize up over widening spreads in CDOs and CMOs. That is how I continue to see it. Look at the posts on my board. The whole world economy is slowing from the US to the UK to Australia. Everywhere but Japan and some sort of little uptick in the EU that must be some sort of mirage given the unrest in France, the UK, and Belgium. This inflation scare will turn into a deflation panic when housing collapses. Mish

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