U.S. deficit running at triple ’02 pace
Federal deficit was $201.6 billion in first seven months of ’03
ASSOCIATED PRESS
WASHINGTON, May 20 — The government ran up a deficit of $201.6 billion in the first seven months of the 2003 budget year, more than three times the total for the corresponding period a year earlier.
THE LATEST FIGURES, released Tuesday by the Treasury Department, underscored the government’s worsening fiscal situation. Record deficits are forecast this year and next.
The total deficit so far this fiscal year, from October through April, compares with a shortfall of $64.8 billion a year earlier.
Revenues were down by 5.4 percent to $1.06 trillion for the seven months of the 2003 budget year in comparison to that period a year earlier. A big part of the drop stemmed from lowered tax payments flowing into the Treasury, a byproduct of tax cuts and the weak economy.
Individual income tax payments totaled $493.8 billion, representing a decline of almost 8 percent from the previous year. Corporate tax payments plunged by 28.7 percent to $62.8 billion.
Federal spending for the seven months totaled $1.26 trillion, a 6.5 percent increase from the corresponding period in fiscal 2002.
The biggest spending categories so far this budget year are: Social Security (the U.S. public pension system), $291.7 billion; programs of the Health and Human Services Department, including Medicare and Medicaid, $290.8 billion; military, $216.5 billion; and interest on the public debt, $174.7 billion.
For the 2002 budget year, which ended Sept. 30, the government ran up a deficit of $157.8 billion, ending four consecutive years of surpluses.
The Congressional Budget Office is predicting this year’s deficit to exceed $300 billion, which would mark an all-time high. The CBO’s estimate doesn’t take into account a fresh round of tax cuts being worked on by Congress and advocated by President Bush.
BY THE NUMBERS
Key economic indicators
• Consumer Confidence April 81.0 61.4
• Retail sales April* -0.1% 2.3%
• GDP Q1 2003* 1.6% 1.4%
• ISM Index April 45.4 46.2
• Factory Orders March* 2.0% -1.0%
• Unemployment Rate April 6.0% 5.8%
• Employment situation April* -48,000 -124,000
• Consumer Price Index (core) April 1.5% 1.7%
• Housing starts April 1,630,000 1,748,000
• Home sales March* 6,542,000 6,803,000
back to list | next
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Recent figures
April 81.0
March 61.4
Feb 64.8
Jan 03 78.8
Dec 80.7
Nov 84.9
Oct 79.6
Sept 93.7
Aug 94.5
July 97.4
June 106.3
May 110.3
What is it?
Consumer confidence is considered important because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The monthly Conference Board survey is one of the two most closely watched indicators of sentiment. Based on a mail-in survey sent to about 5,000 households. Results are converted to an index and expressed in comparison to the 1985 average of 100.
Source: The Conference Board
back to list | next
RETAIL SALES
Recent figures
April* -0.1%
March 2.3%
Feb -1.3%
Jan 03 2.0%
Dec 1.5%
Nov -2.6%
Oct 6.2%
Sep -1.5%
Aug 0.3%
July 0.1%
June -0.3%
May 0.8%
What is it?
A broad measure of consumer spending trends. Includes sales of motor vehicles, clothing, food at both grocery stores and restaurants, electronics, building materials drugs and other items. Expressed as a percent change from previous month, adjusted for seasonal variations but not price changes.
Source: Census Bureau
back to list | next
GDP
Recent figures
Q1 2003* 1.6%
Q4 1.4%
Q3 4.0%
Q2 1.3%
Q1 2002 5.0%
Q4 2.7%
Q3 -0.3%
Q2 -1.6%
Q1 2001 -0.6%
Q4 1.1%
Q3 0.6%
Q2 2000 4.8%
What is it?
The gross domestic product is the broadest measure of the economy, comprising the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. It is reported quarterly with frequent revisions. Generally expressed as a percentage change from the previous quarter in “real” or inflation-adjusted terms. Economists presume real GDP is capable of growing at an annual rate of about 3.5 percent over the long term. When GDP declines over a sustained period of time the economy is considered to be in recession.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
back to list | next
ISM INDEX
Recent figures
April 45.4
March 46.2
Feb 50.5
Jan 03 53.9
Dec 55.2
Nov 50.5
Oct 49.7
Sep 50.7
Aug 50.3
July 50.7
June 55.2
May 54.7
What is it?
The first major indicator reported each month, considered a reliable assessment of how the manufacturing sector is performing. Based on a survey of executives done by the Institute for Supply Management, formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Management. Responses are compiled and reported as an index number. A reading above 50 percent indicates the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below 50 indicates it is shrinking.
Source: Institute for Supply Management
back to list | next
FACTORY ORDERS
Recent figures
March* 2.0%
Feb -1.0%
Jan 03 1.7%
Dec 0.3%
Nov -0.8%
Oct 1.4%
Sep -2.4%
Aug -0.4%
July 4.4%
June -2.5%
May 0.6%
April 0.7%
What is it?
Data on new orders for manufactured goods, adjusted for seasonal variation, offer a good indicator of the manufacturing sector's health, closely watched because it is the most volatile part of the economy. Expressed as percent change from previous month.
Source: Census Bureau.
back to list | next
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Recent figures
April 6.0%
March 5.8%
Feb 5.8%
Jan 03 5.7%
Dec 6.0%
Nov 5.9%
Oct 5.8%
Sep 5.7%
Aug 5.8%
July 5.8%
June 5.8%
May 5.8%
What is it?
One of the best known and most politically powerful economic indicators, the rate is calculated from a monthly survey among a sample of about 60,000 households. The rate is adjusted for seasonal variations, but unlike most economic statistics it is never revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
back to list | next
EMPLOYMENT SITUATION
Recent figures
April* -48,000
March -124,000
Feb -357,000
Jan 03 203,000
Dec -147,000
Nov -81,000
Oct 69,000
Sep -84,000
Aug 123,000
July 54,000
June 34,000
May 22,000
What is it?
Represents the month-to-month change in jobs on payrolls of the nation’s business, government and non-profit establishments. Generally considered a more accurate indicator of labor market health than the unemployment rate. Analysts estimate the economy should add about 150,000 jobs monthly to keep up with the nation’s growing work force. Based on a sample of 300,000 establishments employing nearly a third of the nation’s workers, the figure is adjusted for seasonal variations and frequently revised.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
back to list | next
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CORE)
Recent figures
April 1.5%
March 1.7%
Feb 1.7%
Jan 03 1.9%
Dec 1.9%
Nov 2.0%
Oct 2.2%
Sep 2.2%
Aug 2.4%
July 2.2%
June 2.3%
May 2.5%
What is it?
The most widely known and used measure of inflation, the CPI is based on the price of a “basket” of goods including food, beverages, fuel, medical care and clothing. Value refers to year-over-year change in "core" prices, excluding volatile food and energy categories.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
back to list | next
HOUSING STARTS
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
April 1,630,000
March 1,748,000
Feb 1,640,000
Jan 03 1,828,000
Dec 1,815,000
Nov 1,760,000
Oct 1,653,000
Sep 1,810,000
Aug 1,630,000
July 1,666,000
June 1,709,000
May 1,752,000
What is it?
A good indicator to assess demand for housing and construction industry health. Represents the number of new residential buildings, including single-family and multifamily homes, where construction was started. Expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Construction was started on 1.7 million new residential structures in 2002, the highest level since 1986.
Source: Census Bureau.
back to list | next
HOME SALES
(seasonally adjusted annual rate)
Recent figures
March* 6,542,000
Feb 6,803,000
Jan 03 7,029,000
Dec 6,973,000
Nov 6,662,000
Oct 6,771,000
Sep 6,496,000
Aug 6,407,000
July 6,358,000
June 6,117,000
May 6,644,000
April 6,592,000
What is it?
One of the bright spots of the economy in recent years, driven at least in part by historically low mortgage rates. Figure represents the sum of new and existing single-family home sales, expressed as a seasonally adjusted annual rate. In 2002, a record 6.5 million homes were sold.
Sources: National Association of Realtors, Census Bureau
* preliminary figures
Printable version
Republican leaders and tax writers appeared to be leaning toward a bill that cuts taxes $350 billion over the coming decade and spends roughly an additional $50 billion on state aid and child tax credits.
The Bush administration has blamed the return of deficits on lingering effects of the 2001 recession and the costs of fighting terrorism at home and abroad. Democrats say a major cause of the red ink has been Bush’s 10-year $1.35 trillion tax cut and what they contend are bad economic policies.
In April, the government produced a surplus of $51 billion, based on revenues of $231.2 billion and outlays of $180.1 billion. The surplus for April, however, was smaller than the bounty of $67.2 billion recorded for the corresponding month last year.
msnbc.com |
