VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (44971)	12/10/2001 4:34:45 PM
From: stockman_scott	of 65232

Economists lower their sights for 2002 --2:40pm - By Rex Nutting Economists have reduced their forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2002 to 1% from 1.1% a month ago, according to the monthly survey of 53 economists published by Blue Chip Economic Forecasts. The Blue Chip consensus for 2001 growth was also lowered from 1.1% to 1%. For the fourth-quarter of 2001, the consensus forecast now shows a contraction of 1.3% vs. the 1.9% drop seen a month ago. The economy will probably grow 0.4% in the first quarter. About 70% of the economists think the recession will end by April. The consensus sees the economy growing at a 3.9% clip by the fourth quarter of 2002. Inflation is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2002, while the jobless rate is expected to average 6%. Roach sees muted rebound in 2002 --1:39pm - By Julie Rannazzisi Morgan Stanley chief economist Stephen Roach said he's hopeful an ever-deepening synchronous recession in the global economy will run its course by mid-2002 but suspects that any rebound will be muted when judged against the classic V-shaped profiles of the past. "The good news is that such a 'global U' should temper inflation and interest rate pressures," Roach wrote in a research note. He said the upside of the inventory cycle is expected to deliver two quarters of 5 percent GDP growth in the U.S. in the second half of 2002. But the U.S. economy is expected to fade to 3.6 percent growth over the four quarters of 2003 -- in sharp contrast with the 7 percent 'V-shaped' recoveries of the past. He predicts the U.S. economy will grow 4 percent in 2003. Roach sees world GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent in 2003 - more than double the 1.75 percent average growth pace currently envisioned for 2001 to 2002. In the aftermath of the two previous synchronous recessions in the global economy -- 1975 and 1982 -- Roach notes that world GDP growth rebounded by around 5 percent in the first or second year of recovery. Bond Mkt Assoc. unleashes 2002 forecasts --12:34pm - By Julie Rannazzisi The Bond Market Association expects the U.S. economy to begin its recovery in the second quarter of 2002 and the jobless rate to peak at 6.1 percent in 2002. The group's Economic Advisory Committee said in year-end forecast that the U.S. economy will continue contracting through the first quarter of 2002 before beginning a turnaround that accelerates in the second half of the year. Most of the Association's panelists foresee another 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate in January following a similar move on Tuesday. The Committee said the Fed has done a good job of recognizing the economy's problems and acting quickly. Most of the 24 economists in the group believe the terrorist attacks pushed the economy, which was already showing signs of weakness at the time, into recession and that the attack deepened the contraction and contributed to the sharp third-quarter decline in activity. The panel largely believes the impact of Sept. 11 is temporary. The group expects inflation to remain benign in 2002 at 2 percent and most expect energy prices to recede at least until mid-year. Gross domestic product is seen contracting by 0.3 percent in 2001 and expected to average 2.5 percent for 2002. The committee said additional terrorist attacks, oil supply disruption, longer and deeper layoffs than currently expected and global economic weakness pose the major downside risks to current forecasts. Treasury bond issuance is expected to rise in 2002 with the increase concentrated in the shorter maturities. The Committee's consensus forecast for 30-year fixed-rate home mortgages is 7.20 percent for December 2002, up from the 6.83 percent projected for year-end 2001. TBMA expects the dollar to strengthen against the yen to 126 by the end of 2002 and remain stable against the euro.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next