Roger:
I am NOT a short seller and I take pride in looking at the bright sides of things. For instance, every morning when I wake up and take my first breadth, I sincerely thank my CREATOR that I am STILL alive. That is my approach to life.
Why did I take a negative view in NMPS several week ago? It was because at that time, bullish sentiment was rampart and I felt I should express my view to modulate the over-optimism. I like to study mass psychology, especially in its application to stock market timing. I believe if you can size the current psychology of the mass, you have already won in battle for stock market profits. The current environment is still favorable for stock, and long-term investor like yourself should benefit handsomely because:
1. Stock market is the only game in town, and no other vehicle is big enough to absorb these billions running around and give the investor a resonable return.
2. Biotech will shine because baby boomers like myself are more concern about health. We need a new drug!
3. Momemtum is on the side of stock investor. The law of physics states: a trend in motion will continue. That's momemtum.
4. The political climate is favorable.
5. FDA's changing view on fast-track drug approval is favorable.
The current mass psychology is still favoring biotech stuff, despite their volatilities. As to your price prediction question for NMPS, I could not honestly give you any number because I am not a fortune teller (even though I love fortune cookies). I am only a follower: a follower of the price and volume actions of securities that have occured, and make sensible interpretations from these data. My current two-bits worth of interpretation for NMPS is this:
1. Initial support in the $12-13 range. Today, close to 500,000 shares change hands around $13.25 between 2:30 pm and 4:00 pm EST with several big blocks from the institutions.
2. Primary support in the $10-12 range. If it breaks $10 decisively, all bets are off.
3. According to Elliott Wave, if NMPS is having a GENUINE phase 2 correction, then the phase 3 expansion will take it to a minimum of $31. (Based on the assumption that NMPS will bottom out at $10 at the close of phase 2, and phase 3 advance normally takes it to 1.62 to 2.62 times the phase 1 advance which is from $5 to $18. This will put NMPS in the range of $31 to $44)
Happy dreams!
Regards. |
