Republicans Have Historically Nominated Early Front-Runners
Republicans' current lack of consensus about who should face President Barack Obama next fall is in stark contrast to Republican primary contests over the past half century in which, in all but one case, the eventual nominee was the runaway leader by this point in the campaign.
For instance, in early October 1999, George W. Bush led the Republican field, with 60% of Republicans preferring him for the 2000 nomination. Bob Dole led at a comparable point in 1995 with 46%, George H.W. Bush in 1987 with 41%, Ronald Reagan in 1979 with 41% (in a trial heat that did not include former President Gerald Ford), and so on back to Richard Nixon in 1959, when he led with 67%.
The exception occurred in 2007, when the eventual Republican nominee, John McCain, was drawing just 16% support in early October, putting him in third place behind Rudy Giuliani (32%) and Fred Thompson (20%) for the 2008 nomination.
Bottom Line
Romney and Cain currently lead in Republicans' preferences nationally for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination. However, their 20% and 18% support levels, respectively, are well below where most previous Republican nominees stood in October of the year prior to the election.
Today's Republican lineup is more akin to the history of Democratic primary campaigns than Republican campaigns. And it may be instructive to note that the Democrats' eventual nominees often ranked second or lower at this stage leading up to the election year. Of course, the media, political climate, and political system are quite different today from decades past, so the opportunity for candidates with lower support to surge into the lead as a result of early primary (or state party convention or caucus) wins may not be as great as it once was.
In the meantime, Gallup is seeing plenty of surging and plunging of candidates as a result of the media exposure they are receiving from the Republican straw polls and debates. Given that, and the still-sizable percentage of Republicans who are undecided, history suggests the race may remain fluid for some time.
gallup.com |
