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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology
STX 276.69+1.6%Nov 28 4:00 PM EST
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To: stock bull who wrote (4502)1/11/1998 10:48:00 AM
From: T Bowl  Read Replies (2) of 7841
 
Bull -

Please pass on the new info on SEG that you have! I'd love to
know what supports a price of $30 - $35 next year. The current
estimates for FY98(EndJun) = $0.44 and FY99 = $1.69. And that
was before the recent press release. Looks like the latest round
of estimates will have SEG around breakeven for FY98(the whole year)
Assuming the FY99 estimates do not change then your looking
for a PE of around 18 to 20 middle of 1999. IMO you must have
new info which supports one of the following:
1) SEG will blow the current new estimates out of the water
2) The DD market will be back in boom cycle in 1999.
3) The market will start supporting "normal" PEs for the
DD stocks instead of the single digits or low double digits.

Last time SEG supported a price around $35 was back in
Aug when the estimates were FY98 = $3.00, FY99 = $4.00.
There'e nothing out there currently that tells me SEG can
support such a price.

Please pass on the new info ASAP, so I can put in my
buy for tomorrow.

BTW, have you studied this:
seagate.com
It's pretty ugly. Now tack on another couple of hundred mil
in lost rev to the end of that list. Even uglier. My guess is that
the next update you see to this summary will have the high end
rev down to 1/2 what it was just 3 Qs ago. SEGs high end biz
domination is over. The glory days are gone. That cash cow has
gone to slaughter.

todd
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