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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: aladin who wrote (45050)	9/18/2002 8:17:42 AM
From: LindyBill	of 281500

Chinese engineers and working on projects for them.... Quite different from the Maoists I met... all like cult members (scared the hell out of me)... Glad that you can tell the difference. I expect you read the post I made about the present changeover going on. It is encouraging that the "Mandarin" system is in place, in that it tends to stop adventurism. The problem is the "unexpected." I discovered, when reading "A Spy for all Seasons," that the "unexpected" is referred to inside the CIA by the very racist comment, "The 'WOG' Factor." This means that Foreign Countries will do crazy things that defy all reason by American standards. A good example of this is the '73 invasion of the Sinai by Egypt. The CIA had the total invasion figured out, but could not believe it. They knew that the Egyptians could not win, and therefore did not believe their intelligence. What they did not understand is that Sadat knew this, but also knew that any kind of temporary rollback of the Israelis would be viewed as a triumph after the crushing '67 defeat. So even though the Chinese would be crazy to attempt a Taiwan invasion, it cannot be ruled out, and must be taken as a serious possibility.

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