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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Ron Bower who wrote (4505)	7/26/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) of 78700

Seems to me that a lot of the bad news was known when it fell to 23. The stock got punished twice - once in anticipation, and then again after the decreased estimates were announced. I posted on my web site "look for flat sales in 1998" back in May. You'd think Wall Street could have figured this out if I could. But then, this scenario is so common that one of my rules is "wait for the downgrades," and I didn't do that here. I think another factor here is the general dichotomy in the market getting worse. It's one thing to be a value stock, which should be avoided at all costs. But the earnings announcement got most of the holdouts (who must've been braindead not to know it was coming) to abandon ship. I think that the 4 years of outperformance by go go stocks is finally getting to the big value managers. They're dumping value left and right. Sogen's head hints at this. Heaven forbid their clients see that they didn't see the value in Amazon. In any case, I've got a small position in NH and will add to it when it makes sense to. I'm sure it will recover with the sector, no sooner and no later. And I'll sell no sooner. Mike

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