For xDSL going long, I'm undecided at this point, but
favoring Pairgain (PAIR). They just came out with
earnings last night and the report was good, not exceptional,
but good. They are trading at a multiple near 30 and
projected to grow near that rate. However, they are one
of the few xDSL companies with actual profits and a
market cap over $1B.
Two other possibles are WSTL and COMS (yes, COMS). WSTL is
a much smaller company than PAIR that will live or die with
the xDSL wave. They do have one deployment - I learned that
NetSpeed is using WSTL chips in their modems, which are being
used in the US West roll-out. COMS may be able to leverage
its huge brand name in analog modems to grab a big share of
the DSL modem field. They have been developing DSL modems for
a couple years, with real products last year (HDSL, I think).
In any case, it seems to me that a momentum wave of DSL
could easily hit the market this year and somebody will
be the beneficiary. It may take on a RMBS excess and pull
back strongly, but there will be considerable news along this
front for the year. Time to do your homework and decide if
you want to place your bets.
jg |
