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Technology Stocks : Creative Labs (CREAF)
CREAF 0.448-4.6%Dec 17 12:59 PM EST

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To: Rutgers who wrote (4513)10/21/1997 8:49:00 PM
From: jgideon   of 13925
 
OK, I'm back from putting my toddler to bed. Let me
explain my position in a little more detail.

I was discussing CREAF with my wife at lunch today.
She is a 2nd year MBA at Columbia. She is in tune
with the theoretical view of the markets, while I
have a more experiential view of the markets. However,
together we agreed on one thing: if the market is only
giving CREAF a P/E multiple of 12, then the lead steers
do not see a good source of long term revenue for this
company. This company has excellent short term growth
and has delivered extremely well the past 5 quarters.
Why doesn't the P/E multiple show some respect?

I've looked at several (5-6) analyst reports on CREAF
and only one had a bullish nature. Most gave only a
13% five year growth rate and a couple predicted revenue
declines starting in the year 2000. The focus was on the
diminishing returns of the sound card dominance. They
did not believe multimedia would amount to anything
significant. They did not identify where new revenue
sources would come from. Hence, I believe that they will
pay attention to the top line as well as the bottom line.

Now, here we get to your mention of the GOOD news, WF.
It seems that multimedia has amounted to something, in
the way of 35% of the profits. The breakdown of the
revenues is very important to shake the idea of a one
product company that many of these folks have. Once the
analysts are swayed that there is a good future revenue
stream from such products, then estimates will be revised
and we'll get the upgrades and a more respectable PE.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

jg
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