Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: Kevin K. Spurway who wrote (45208)	1/8/1999 8:04:00 PM
From: kash johal	of 1581209

Kevin, >Re:Don't forget the .35u wafers early in the year in your >calculations. Kevin a super detailed model is probably not worth the effort. As an example any wafer starts after 12/1 are unlikely to have yielded any revenue in parts. So at 15-16K wafer/mo range at year end that is also significant. The key is that with full up Fab 25 and 30 coming on AMD has plenty of capacity even with piss poor yields. The real issues is wether they can ramp up the speed grades to ramp the average ASP to $150 or so. If they can then we are looking at a $100 stock. If they can't then we are still in reasonable shape as $1.0 earning for FY 99 should be a lock even if average ASP's drop to $75-80. I see limited downsides and pretty significant upsides in the stock. And with Intel fighting with Compaq,IBM,HP on server patent issues this could present a real opportunity to AMD with the K7-if they perform. Regards, Kash

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