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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Steve Lee who started this subject4/1/2002 12:13:47 PM
From: LTK007   of 99280
 
briefing.com breakdown/commentary on ISM index(old NAPM)--factory orders tomorrow.
<<Highlights

March ISM 55.6.
Key Factors

Smallest increase of the last 5 months left the manufacturing index at 2 year high.
Powered by new orders which rose to 65.3 -- the highest level in 15 years (Oct 1986).
Production fell off but with orders booming hard to imagine a continued downturn.
Inventories remain low at 41.2, tighten link between new orders and production. No stock to fill orders.
Prices paid jumped 10 points to 51.9 -- energy prices leading an advance after a year of contraction (sub 50).
Employment rose 4 points but at 47.5 continues to lag as hiring waits for signs of sustained mfg expansion.
Trade measures on the rise. Imports with a 4th month of growth, exports with 3rd. Imports stronger than exports.
Even order backlogs running very strong at 62.5.
Big Picture

The extended 18 month contraction ended in Feb after reaching a decade low in Oct. New orders and production are the force and helped by the lean supply of inventories. New orders and production are accelerating with 3 months above 50 but the duration of the advance may be short if business investment continues to drag on the concern of profits. Prices paid (input costs) are back in focus as they're back on the rise given the turn in energy prices. Higher input costs slow the improvement in profits. The manufacturing sector recession has given way to stability as sustained improvement waits for growth in business investment. Consumers and lean inventories now provide the support.
Category Mar Feb Jan Dec Nov
Total Index 55.6 54.7 49.9 48.1 44.7
Orders 65.3 62.8 55.3 55.5 48.4
Production 57.8 61.2 52.0 50.3 48.2
Employment 47.5 43.8 42.6 39.2 35.7
Deliveries 53.1 52.3 51.7 48.0 47.8
Inventories 41.2 39.5 40.5 38.2 37.9
Export Orders 51.0 51.1 50.8 47.6 48.6
Prices 51.9 41.5 43.9 33.2 32.0






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