Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 208.75

+4.2%

3:12 PM EST

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To: Roadkill who wrote (45401)	4/27/1998 12:48:00 AM
From: Inga	of 61433

Asnd stocks, to hold or not to hold. I did some price movement analysis and noticed the following patterns and would like to share with everyone. Here goes my two cents. Fundamentally, the stock is no question in a strong uptrend. Forward 99 earning consensus is 1.50 and considered conservative by many analysts. A P/E of 30 would yield a price of 45. As we progress into Q2 with conferences and trade shows, it would build more investor's confidence in ATM growth and it is now very likely that earning consensus can be revised upward (1.60) or having an expanding P/E of 35 which would yield a price of 48-50 range. The stock had the following four major up trend movements: 1) 01/27 - 02/27 (27 3 /4 - 38 1 /4) 23 trading days inclusive 2) 03/05 - 03/13 (32 7/16 - 36 7/8) 7 trading days 3) 03/19 - 04/03 (31 1/16 - 39 15/16) 12 trading days 4) 04/07 - 04/21 (36 1/8 - 44 3/16) 11 trading days The retrace periods correspond to the above: 1) 02/27 - 03/05 (38 1 /4 - 32 7/16) 5 trading days 2) 03/13 - 03/19 (36 7/8 - 31 1/16) 5 trading days 3) 04/03 - 04/07 (39 15/16 - 36 1/8) 3 trading days 4) 04/21 - 04/24 (44 3/16 - 41 1 /4) 4 trading days Up trend range Retrace range Percent retrace 1) 10.50 5.8125 55% 2) 4.4375 5.8125 131% 3) 8.875 3.8125 43% 4) 8.0625 2.9375 36% Note: The 131% retracement was an anomaly due to the SNI bomb threat which a pure chart analysis cannot predict. If the SNI bomb threat did not occur, it was very likely that the second retracement period would not exist. So, do we have an up day tomorrow (04/27). I think it is quite likely tomorrow range will be 42-44 due to the following reasons: 1) The down days were 4 days already (max 5 consecutive down days in all retracement periods since 01/27) and the retracement reached almost 38%. 2) Candlestick formed an inverted hammer (small real body is formed near the lower part of the price range; the pattern appears after a 3-day down trend; the upper shadow is not more than two times as long as the body; the lower shadow is nonexistent; the previous day was a long black body) in this retracement period (04/21-04/24) which indicates a possible reversal. 3) Volume was down significantly (3.9 MM) when the inverted hammer was formed. 4) A similar candlestick pattern appeared on 02/13 (8MM) , 02/17 (5.8 MM), 03/18 (3.7 MM). The inverted hammer was formed on 02/18 on very low volume, 3.7 MM compared to the 3-day period and the price trend reversed the next day (02/19). However with this candlestick pattern, it is important to have confirmation tomorrow (the opening price must be higher than Friday's close of 41 15/16). If the prediction is correct and the trend is my friend, we will have another 8-point run (42-50) before a major retracement occurs. It will take another 11+ trading days to get there (before May 15). If the confirmation tomorrow fails and I am wrong, we probably have at most 2 more down days and 50% retracement to a price of 40 before the next run-up (40-48). Good luck to everyone. Notes: Invest at your own risk.

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