I have been doing some research and "guesstamating" the 4Q report of NAP due out at the end of this month. The 3Q report was very revealing, and I will make some assumptions based upon it that may not be valid at the present time. In all cases, however, I have opted for the more conservative number in order to represent the more probable circumstances.
On November 25th, 1999 NAP issued it's 3Q results and stated, "The Company reported a net loss for the three months ended September 30, 1999 of $3,159,000 or $0.36 per share on revenue from metal sales of $11,961,000" and "The concentrator processed 254,564 tons during the third quarter of 1999 resulting in 15,602 ounces of palladium being shipped to the smelter"
During the 3Q, Pd prices ranged from a low of US $314/oz (05 July 1999) to a high of US$ 384/oz (29 Sept 1999) averaging approximately $350/oz.
During the soon to be reported 4Q, Pd prices ranged from US $374/oz (19 Oct 1999) to a high of US $ 415/oz (13 Nov 1999)averaging US $395/oz.
The Q over Q change in Pd prices represents an increase of US $45/oz, or a 12.8% increase in Pd prices alone. On 15,600 oz of Pd production, this represents additional revenues of approximately US $700,000, reducing the net loss to approximately US $2,460,000, or (-.22)/share.
Needless to say, the current Q (1Q 00)saw a spectacular rise in Pd prices, on the order of US $100/oz increase over average 4Q 1999 prices. Even if production remains the same, the net effect would reduce losses to approximately US $900,000.
Comments welcome.
Sleeper
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