Protius,
That was exactly the point that I was trying to make. With a speculative stock such as Vencap, the potential sales figure does not lead to a given share price. I think that only the net profit potential of the lumber project as well as the market value of any other assets can lead to a guesstimate of the potential share price. I don't think that we know enough to support a share price anywhere near what you mentioned.
First, we need to see the official agreement finalized and the actual timetable for execution. Second, we need to know more about Vencap's balance sheet, capital structure and overall financial disclosure.
The market is usually very aware of the true value of a company's shares. Those in the know would have bought more shares and in so doing, would have caused an increase in the share price. On the contrary, what we have seen in the past few weeks appears to be distribution rather than accumulation.
Thus, the timelines are probably longer than many people expected. The trip down to South America has not yet been completed and following that, further negotiations would take place. I imagine that as we get closer to a final deal, speculation will ramp up again, but for how long, is anyone's guess at this time.
To go beyond recent highs will require more projects and indications of when they will conclude. Right now, Vencap appears to be the domain of daytraders. I think Vencap has a very decent chance of providing a fair return for the risk, but I suggest that it would be south of $0.50 unless some unexpected positive development were to occur. Their planned venture is not without risk and I would hope that we would learn more about the harvesting and export permits. |
