It's
Role Reversal for Cramer at the H&Q
Conference
By James J. Cramer
4/29/98 3:10 PM ET
Talk about the height of absurdity. I just called in to tell Jeff
Berkowitz, my partner, how the 3Com and Ascend
meetings went.
Jeff is the quintessential Mr. Outside. He is always trying to
figure out new changes at the margins, pick up hints, find
out new things about companies. He is a fixture at forums
like the one I am at right now, the Hambrecht & Quist
Technology Conference.
I am the quintessential Mr. Inside. I take Jeff's data points
and I turn them into stock points. So imagine my surprise
when I told Jeff that I had just pulled up with Mory Ejabat,
the CEO of Ascend, and he was quite bullish, and then
having to be told, "Well, Jim, that's why the stock is up a
buck. Duh."
Heck, that's my job he's doing. And he's dissing me!
But every year I make it a point to go to three of these
conferences. I do it because if I don't I will get stale. I will not
feel the pulse of the industry, know the new players,
understand how business is humming, or not, at least at
America's latest and greatest companies.
If I don't do this I run the risk of just trading the Ciscos and
the 3Coms, tried and true names that I know well and am
comfortable with.
One of the things that drove the Trading Goddess crazy in
the early '90s was that I was always jamming on new names
like Cisco and Oracle, when she was much more
comfortable trading the Cats and the Deeres. She hated the
new stocks, but that's where the performance was. She
would rather retire than change, and she did! Give me
Maytag or give me death, I guess.
That's why I have to find out about the Rogue Waves and
the Ovids. I can't afford to just trade the same old names
when there could be some home runs out there. But you
have to see these companies in action to understand what
they do and get the feel for their execs to see if you believe
they can execute.
Still I found myself playing my role at these meetings, not
Jeff's. Take a look at the schematic of my mind during the
Ascend meeting: "Hmmm, wish he had said Europe was a
tad better, could knock the stock to $42, but wait a sec,
that's positive on Japan, going to $43. Oh no, he didn't take
the bait offered by H&Q analyst Joe Noel and preannounce
better numbers. He's not smiling. $41 look out. Ah,
attacking Cisco, back to $43, but how about my Cisco
position?"
Get's a little like the Strangers on a Train tennis scene if you
ask me. Meanwhile, some of these meetings remind me of
opera. I sit around and wade through all of Die Walkure just
to hear the Ride of the Valkyries -- the earnings forecast --
and would just as soon nod off at the rest. For Jeff, though,
this stuff must be like Mozart, one good aria after another.
Guess I am jealous.
For what it is worth, the synthesis of 3Com and Ascend from
Cramer Berkowitz? Same as previous guidance. Now that's
worth flying 3,000 miles for!!!!
James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and
co-chairman of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his
fund is long Ascend, Cisco and 3Com, although positions
may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the
information in this column represent a recommendation to
buy or sell stocks. Mr. Cramer's writings provide insights
into the dynamics of money management and are not a
solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide
investment advice or recommendations, he welcomes your
feedback, emailed to Jjc@thestreet.com.
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