Andrew,
I have a number of scattered files on ATML that I will compile and send to you via e-mail if that is okay, since that version of this story isn't short, but here is the short version in my opinion....ATML has had over the years great growth, but this last quarter they stumbled, they have just spent a medium fortune on a new fab in Roussett, France and need to get that plant up and running at full speed. They stated they would fall short on this last quarter for three reasons (1) the strong dollar vs. the yen (2) pricing pressures on Flash memory products and (3) time pressures to get some new products qualified....Then the stock began its big sell-off. It appears to me the bottom was about 21-7/8 and that at about that level all the folks who will abandon ship at the first signs of trouble ARE LONG GONE. In part, because all the folks who might wish to sell have probably already sold, I think the downside Risk is small, while the Upside Reward is Large. Since over the years, they have not tended to disappoint, and in fact have grown Revenues and Earnings very nicely, I figure Management can't be a bunch of dolts, and rumor has it they are sharp guys/gals. One last tidbit. [this is from March 1997]....
Found this:
NEEDHAM & COMPANY, INC. Trading: 212/371-8411 800/843-4446
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"Company FY Rev.(millions) EPS
Atmel Corporation (ATML/OTC:$32.63) 12/98E: $1620 $2.90
Analyst: Sandy Harrison, 212/705-0314 12/97E: $1330 $2.40
Buy.
*The stock was down 10% yesterday driven by what we believe were two issues: 1) A competitor downgraded ATML from Buy to Accumulate and concern on the ability of the Company to make the quarter due to pressures from Yen demonstrated sales which represent 15-20% of revenues. *The fundamentals of the Company remain intact and we continue to see ATML as a strong second half 1997 story driven by its new Eprom based Flash, microcontrollers, and ASIC (ES2) products. *Longer term, we expect revenue growth of 20-25% driven by Flash, which the market is expected to grow 25-28% in 1997 and
micro-peripheral products. Our 12-18 month price target is in the high $50's on 1998 revenue and EPS estimates of $1.62 billion and $2.90 respectively. With the recent pull back we view this as a great opportunity."
Teri |
