Ahh, I think I see our problem here: you are defining the "market" as the OEM market, i.e. resale into equipment manufacturing. I was thinking of the "market" as the desktop market, where Windows has become dominant. The desktop market grew by the bootstrap process of developers creating software, that software creating demand, creating more incentive to create more software so that now Windows dominates.
My point is that I think the desktop market will again be driven by developers creating Java applications that solve new user problems, which create demand which ... etc until Java dominates.
A final thought: one huge potential advantage of Java from the perspective of an end user is an end to having to load the latest version of Windows (think about it: 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.1, 3.11, 95, 95 OEM2, 98, NT 3.0, NT3.51, NT 4.0, NT 5.0, ... with no end in sight) just to gain access to the latest software products.
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