Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 318.63

-3.0%

Feb 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (4613)	5/17/1997 6:24:00 PM
From: Terry D	of 70976

TO ALL - A few niggling signs of a temporary top. 1. The Chartist newsletter added AMAT to its relative strength list. The perverse twist is his stock picks are terrible although his mkt calls are serviceable. On individual issues, he is usually very late. 2. Murphy in the Cal Tech Stk Letter noted AMAT's strong earnings and made comments about the group. Problem - same as note 1. 3. Technically - AMAT had a tremendous week - up 4.37%. The market is due for a consolidation of its gains - and AMAT may be as well. However - unlike the market 4. Fundamentally - we are in the sweet spot. As I sit hear looking through the 10Q again - it is all systems go. Cash, r&d, mkt share, mgt - well everybody knows the story. Unless the tech bears are correct and the DRAM glut is still overhanging (I know that Morgan addressed this re tool size), server and pc sales are rolling off a cliff - both in unit and dollar measures, the fabulous order backlog is going to be pushed out... Basically, unless Jim Morgan is just reading his end markets completely wrong ... Concerns - Back to back tech wreck summers? It is not cheap and as noted above, some fast, weak money is pouring in. These guys are happy to make a quick 10-15% and move on. So they make waves. Newcomers - buy on weakness. All the rest of us, check back in August. td

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