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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: FMK who wrote (459)5/27/1997 2:19:00 PM
From: Xingbo Wang   of 27311
 
Wow, just found out that VLNC has more than 30 competitors on the "Lithium Power Batteries" thread. This makes the analysis far more difficult. Everyone will say they have the best technology and everyone will say they hope to get a substantial market share. Who am I going to believe?

<<Your approach is quite different - You have already stated your conclusions and now promise to do most of your research when you return from vacation.>>

Not true. I have not reached conclusions one way or the other, but I am clearly on the cautious side. However, you are right that my approach is quite different from other people's. Before I put down my money, the first question (but not the only question) I ask is how much money I could lose, not how much money I could make. In other words, I want to ask first what could go wrong with a company, not what could go right. You know there are a dozen ways things can go wrong but only one way things can go right. Losing money then making it back is far more difficult than making money and then losing it, if only because you need money to make money. The risk/reward ratio has to be greater than 3 to 1 in my favor before I can even consider an investment.

I think SI threads are usually a very good contrarian indicator. Too often, the posts are most bullish when the stock is topping and most bearish when the stock is bottoming. The lack of negative comments on this thread does scare me a bit. I was hoping I could stir up some discussions about competitors. But if no one wants to address the issue, I will keep my mouth shut.

Regards,

Xingbo
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