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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 684.83

+0.6%

Dec 22 4:00 PM EST

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To: John Pitera who wrote (4632)	1/23/1999 10:31:00 PM
From: bobby beara	of 99985

Hi John, the Prudent Bear Fund has an angled double top formation in September/October with a baseline on 9/23 & 10/23 of 6.65. The peak of the move in October was 9.51. The projection of this pattern is 4.79. We made 4.76 in the first week of January. Another way of looking at the inverted H&S pattern on the SPX is to use the angled tops across April/June/August as the baseline. These were shoulder resistance on the H&S pattern the caused the correction into September/October. Lets say former resistance has now become support. A line draw across the tops comes in around 1100 spx for the breakout point, which makes a projection to around 1277 which we made in the first week of Jan. Draw a trendline from the May 96 top in the SPX thru the 8/97 top and it intersects with April 98, July 98 and Jan 99. That's not to say that we couldn't have a rally and retouch that trendline after the current correction is over. bb

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