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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: Mr. Moose who wrote (461)3/14/1997 10:04:00 PM
From: John Metcalf   of 6136
 
Merck charging, with an inferior product, would be counter-productive with the well-organized HIV+ population, and contrary to the reputation for excellence that Merck has enjoyed. Merck's detailers can schmooze with the MD's, but that won't matter at all to people who are failing on Crix, experiencing kidney stones, etc.

In reality, this is a consumer-driven marketplace, with the best-educated and organized consumers ever. The best product will prevail.

So, what is the best product? Peter Johnson has been saying that double protease inhibitor therapies will be the most efficaceous. All the approved PI's are being tested in two-PI combinations with -- Viracept! Even Vertex' 141 is in a double combo trial with Viracept, though it is a year from approval.

How will the competitors compete with Agouron when every one of them has chosen Viracept as the complement in their double PI trial?

As to Roche, why did the Swiss drug giant give AGPH $40mm for part of the European rights to compete with Saquinivir? Would that be to pre-empt Viracept from the market? If so, why is Roche granting Agouron a percentage of royalties on excess of Saq vs. Viracept sales?

Today's news was widely anticipated and did not move the stock much. But the next wave of two-PI therapies and the stunning Roche deal are yet to be considered in Agouron's share price.
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