The Election Today: Five Quick Takes
John Mark Reynolds
Politics
09.12.2008
Avoid the temptation to read each poll and make Big Conclusions about each. The race is slowly unfolding.
Status Recap:
This election was Obama’s to lose, but he is presently losing it. “Losing it” is becoming personal as well as general. In fact, Obama now is the candidate who must be looking forward to the debates.
He needs to change the direction of the campaign. That is a major switch from the summer.
We will not know much more until the debates, but:
1. Sarah Palin jumped the low bar set for her in her first major interview last night. She was not great, she fumbled at least one answer, but in a high pressure interview she showed that she can handle major media (whoopee!) and has a good grasp on the issues of the day. It will only get easier from here.
A few points:
Charlie Gibson repeated lies about Palin’s prayer at her church, but he was relying on the grossly inaccurate edited version in an AP story.
Overall Gibson was tough but fair and Palin was fine. What we learned about her general “world view” was interesting . . .
We learned Palin would defend Ukraine (very good news) and Georgia (o.k. news) if both were admitted to NATO. We learned Palin loves Israel. We learned that Palin wants to win the war on terror.
Good.
People tempted to believe the President should be a Jeopardy winner would not have voted for Ronald Reagan and will not vote for Palin. Leaders have advisors who give them the details while they monitor the big picture (see Reagan). Bad leaders monitor every detail, including the White House tennis court schedule (see Jimmy Carter) and end up impotent and unable to see the big picture.
Palin did nothing to change the campaign dynamic which means she continues to move votes McCain’s way. In fact, she still is the campaign. She may be the best Veep pick ever in terms of changing an election dynamic.
Bonus insight: Palin understood “doctrine” when she first heard it as a philosophical or religious term. Her default vocabulary is not Washington-speak. I find that refreshing.
2. Obama is running ads that are harming his campaign.
His latest “McCain is old” and “he cannot use a computer” meme is a very, very bad idea.
Insight for the youngsters reading this blog: All my life the candidate for president who relied on the youth vote lost.
I have never seen a candidate go out of his way to make everyone over fifty dislike him. Why? Those folk vote and they dislike being prematurely sent out to pasture. In fact, they hate it.
Instead of pivoting to the middle, Obama keeps stirring up the already committed. What is the point? If McCain runs ads targeted to me, then he has foolishly wasted his money. Obama is running ads for his fans. Why? Why? Why?
3. Obama has never lost a lead and run into sustained electoral adversity before . . . and it shows.
His previous elections were uncontested or blowouts. His fight against Clinton was a slow, but fairly steady upward climb to victory. His setbacks were either of brief duration (New Hampshire) or after he could autopilot to victory (Pennsylvania). Obama’s problem is that he has won nothing yet. He cannot coast to victory.
The summer now counts for nothing. William Jennings Bryan would have been president of the United States if summer magic counted in November. I have been warning of this problem since winter! When will Senator Obama pivot to reach out to skeptical voters?
Look at the electoral map and you see more and more of his states in play and fewer of McCain’s.
How will Senator Obama react if he is “behind” for a couple of weeks? How will the media react?
4. Senator Obama is running a better campaign than his allies. Some of his friends are becoming unhinged.
When serious articles at mainstream sites written by Obama fans claim Sarah Palin is not a true woman (really!) and a “pathological liar,” then something has gone wrong in Obama-dom. The Alaska Democratic Party used to praise Palin for things like killing the Bridge to No-Where . . . she is simply not the lunatic that the far left believes she is.
Most of the American people are not going to believe Governor Palin is evil either.
We are not talking about posts on Daily Kos by obscure lunatics. That would tells us nothing. Heaven knows weird, offensive, and wicked posts about Senator Obama sometimes bubble up on sites like Free Republic from obscure lunatics on the right.
Mainstream pundits for Obama have simply lost it. The Atlantic, a great journal, has a columnist who suggested Palin was not the mother of her baby and maintains the fantasy that she is destroying the McCain campaign.
This is going to deeply hurt the Obama campaign. He should repudiate some of these folk by name.
5. McCain is biding his time for the debates.
If he wins the first debate (on the economy which is Obama’s strength), then he will win. We will see.
scriptoriumdaily.com |
