Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 314.52

-0.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: orkrious who wrote (4650)	8/6/2002 9:30:47 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	of 95572

. but they make more chips per wafer now and per unit of AMAT equipment. This has been the case for every cycle, but the profits and revenues have continued to grow at about the same rate. 200mm increased chips per wafer the same as 300mm is doing right now, and yet the industry did not hurt for it. I sincerely do not see what your concern is. Quite honestly, I am baffled. these companies will never see their past growth rates again. I heard the same argument by Bears in '96 and '98......the fact of the matter is that this industry either builds way too much or cuts back capacity much more than is necessary. We are now witnessing the latter, with the former to inevitably follow at some point. One of the largest downturns will probably have one of the greatest upturns to follow since the downside and the upside are usually highly correlated. There is absolutely no reason to believe that this time it will be otherwise. Betting that is will be otherwise is a bet against what has happened 100% of the time historically.....not a bet I would take:-)

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