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Strategies & Market Trends : Underexposed Technical Analysis

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Underexposed who wrote (465)	9/1/2019 4:25:55 AM
From: Underexposed	of 914

CDN: An analysis on the S&P/TSX Composite Index [TSX] I thought it would be worthwhile to do the same analysis on the TSX to see if there was any difference between major indices of Canada and the USA. Here is a cursory look at the TSX and SPX They look pretty much the same, don't they? Similar drops towards the end of April with a recovery starting June 1 then another drop at the end of July... and in August... a very similar rise and fall in value yielding a very similar pattern in the Slow Sto. But.. is the outlook the same for the near future???? we shall see. First charts Well if you compare the P&F chart for the TSX to that of the SPX there are rather significant differences First of all the resistance and support levels are different.... they are reversed. In the SPX there waas a large resistance band and a thinner support.... In the char above the resistance is thinner than the support This gives the TSX a better chance of moving through the resistance... it is not home free after a breach of the resistance as there is a broad band of resistance not much higher at 16600 -17000 In that blue circle we have the good news of a double top breakout which is a bullish sign. We are also attacking the resistance band and that in itself is mildly bullish. The Column SMAs though are mildly bearish as the red is above the blue line... though the red line in the TSX has a flatter slope and looks ready to reverse direction. You can see that in the above left circle the computer algorithm suggests a bullish rise to 17010...again I don't have a lot of faith in the objective level but the sentiment is nice to see... mildly bullish The Trigger chart look similar but there are subtle differences with the SPX chart, The crossing of the 20daySMA through and below the 50 daySMA is neutral bearish however the value last closed above the 50daySMA which is a good sign and I modified the bearishness down to neutral from mildly because of that. I don't see the evidence of a horizontal channel forming as I did in the SPX chart. There is a difference Slow sto... similar to in the SPX it has oscillated between 20-50 August... but look... the last result rose above 50...breaking the pattern...mildly bullish The MACD seems a bit more robust... if the Slow Sto continue their rise this could be the start of a breakout for real. The BBWidth is a bit ragged and should drop to 1.5-2.0 before bottoming out. This suggests to me that the attack on the resistance will fail and the value will pull back. This is not a real negative since it can marshall its strength and try another attack Again the Sentiment chart is straight forward....ignore the Par Sar The Force 30 has risen slightly out of the mud.....mildly bullish The RSI 30 actual has a positive slope and has peeked over 50 ... neutral bullish The DI +/- is perfectly neutral with the red line and green line looking like they will make a bullish cross... it looks that way but there are no guarantees it will happen. The Ichimoku chart shows the value is also in a green cloud but the difference is that in 3 days it has risen fro far below that green cloud to strongly enter that cloud to make it only mildly bearish The thin red/blue lines are still bearish but converging nicely.... mildly bearish The OnBal Vol is reversing direction ....neutral The CCI is headed for bullish territory.... mildly bullish The CFM 30 now has a positive slope... mildly bullish Conclusion what is the consensus of this analysis... Bullish.............................. 1 Mildly Bullish.................... 7 Neutral Bullish................. 1 Neutral............................ 2 Neutral Bearish............... 1 Mildly Bearish................. 3 Bearish........................... now... after cancelling opposites we are left with Bullish............................. 1 Mildly Bullish....................4 Neutral Bullish................. Neutral............................ 2 Neutral Bearish............... 0 Mildly Bearish................. 0 Bearish........................... 0 Well.................. even though the SPX and TSX look somewhat the same the consensus of the indicators tell a different story... The TSX is showing mild bullishness. I still think the attack on the resistance will fail on Monday and there will be a pullback but I doubt it will be all the way to the support level and soon after it will make another attack on that resistance. It will be interesting to see what happens. UE

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