SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (4660)8/15/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: James Clarke   of 78670
 
re: ELY The names of the product should have told you when to short the stock. Bertha. OK, it can get bigger, so maybe you buy the stock. Big Bertha. Its already big - can't get much bigger - sell your position. Then "Biggest Bertha". Once something gets "biggest", you know one thing - it ain't getting bigger. Short the stock.

What can they possibly name the next product? "Bigger than Biggest Bertha"? I'm just saying this facetiously now, but it would not have been a bad way to trade the stock in hindsight.

As for Shane's post before, if that's the company's story now the stock is going lower. Rich people may indeed trade up to the "Bigger than Biggest" club at a higher price. But rich people trading up is not where the company's growth has come from in the last few years. It has been middle class golfers buying their first "killer club". The clubs don't wear out, so there is no replacement demand. And will a blue collar golfer who is pretty happy with his Big Bertha buy the new product? In their growth phase they were trying to convince this consumer to replace his cheapo wood. Now they have to convince him to replace his Big Bertha. That's a very different game, and I don't think they can do it. If I have to buy or short this stock, I short it.

It is also important to understand that the marginal consumer (me) who wants a high tech club has a used market now. As I understand it, I can get a used Big Bertha for 1/3 the price of a new generation club, and there is not that much difference given the level of my game. A used sale has virtually no impact on the company's prospects.

Jim
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News