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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 200.81-1.1%12:49 PM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (4659)2/1/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: spiny norman   of 10921
 
Zeev, the article assumed the Thai rate on all Asian non-Japan loans. As long as the country is not Thailand, my point about applying Thai default statistics to other countries still applies.

Although I do not think the 30% Thai default rate holds true for Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, China, Phillippines, etc, I still did use it to derive the 90 billion figure for total defaults.

Personally, I think that the 10% figure cited for Thai commercial banks is probably more indicative of the type of loans that are where the Japanese banks would be competing. The Thai "finance companies" are basically analagous to US S&Ls in that their portfolios are primarily local real estate. (I believe that about 2/3rds of them are also bankrupt.)

If you want to take arguably the worst case country and apply thier stats to other countries, feel free. If you really want to scare people, you can even apply that 30% figure to the USA.

regards,

spiny
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