although I've disagreed with Slider in the past, I agree with him on the gold mining stocks here. It is time to stay out of gold stocks.
the easy money has been made, now HUI is hostage to fast money swing traders. As Jack Chan has pointed out in recent reports, and as Slider's post showed very well, HUI has been stuck in a trading range since May 2006, and HUI will not break to new highs until we see the next "impulsive phase" (IP) of buying. Right now its the same goldbug crowd jumping in and out of the sector.
over on Valueforum, a pay message board made up of middle age and older retirees, supposedly more "value" oriented, and looking for safe dividends and fixed income plays, the board has become overwhelmed with folks pumping metals. It is amazing.
that was the signal to me that the top was in for gold....
not saying u can't make some money day trading and swing trading the sector, but just buying and waiting for $1,000 gold is not likely to succeed.
what goldbugs don't acknowledge is that even with a terrible outlook for the US dollar, it is not inevitable that gold will go higher. Its just another speculative commodity, not unlike natural gas, crude oil, sugar, wheat, pork bellies.
too many watch CNBC, read 321gold and kitco, and jump online chasing gold stocks, hearing those famous words in their head:
"get in there and BUY -- MORTIMER! BUY BUY BUY!"
my strategy has been to buy some kruggerands and gold eagles, keep em in the safe deposit box, but I'm out of paper gold and gold stocks. These mining companies margins are getting squeezed, and their stocks are too richly valued at these levels, even AUY.
good luck to all,
praha4 |
