Paul,
If you want to be up to date on the virtues or falsehoods of TA, you had better get more contemporary that the "Random Walk" tome. Academics are, in part, abandoning many of their prior conclusions concerning the Random Walk Hypothesis. In fact, CNBC did a piece on this a couple of weeks ago. That said, this particular book has been a cornerstone of my investment phylosophy for many years.
A more recent book (but not by any means an academic exercise) is "Stocks for the Long Run" which rightly points out that certain techinical systems have ,indeed, shown the ability to beat the indices by a bit more than 2% over the last 30 years. This is a whopping number, except for, as they also point out, the costs of commissions-- a factor that, If I remember (and that is no gaurantee) "Random Walk" took into account in some of its studies. But it is worth noting that the commissions taken into account in the more recent book were much higher than more recent online trading opportunities.
So, your remark about their being no statistically no sound evidence..et.al is not empirical, and many a more studied professionals than you (I assume) would gladly debate it.
As for CLE-- the way things get exhaggerated in this market I would not at all be surprised for the stock to get hammered down beyond reason. However, I strongly believe this is a great little company worth owning.
Cheers.
B
B. |
